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Why do some American intelligence officials maintain fallout shelters and private contingency plans to evacuate their families in the event of a Russian nuclear strike―even in today's post-Cold War era of U.S.-Russian partnership? The frightening answer lies within the pages of War Scare, a terrifying assessment of the prospect for nuclear holocaust in our day. Written by Peter Vincent Pry, a former CIA military analyst, War Scare provides a history of our country's little-known brushes with nuclear war and warns that, contrary to popular opinion and the assurances of our political leaders, the possibility of a Russian attack still exists. Nuclear deterrence has been the foundation of Western security for the last 50 years, but since the end of the Cold War, Russian military doctrine has become more destabilizing, and much more dangerous, than is commonly believed.
By making use of a wealth of declassified and unclassified material, Dr. Pry illustrates how Russia's brutal past continues to shape the consciousness and decision making of its leaders, many of whom are unreconstructed ideologues from the old Soviet regime. Gripped by a perpetual perception of imminent threat―a war scare―the Russian General Staff, which controls the technical capability of launching a nuclear strike, has shown itself to be unstable at best. The author explores recent history and near-disasters such as the Bosnian crisis, the Norway missile incident, and U.S. air strikes on Iraq from the perspective of the Russian General Staff, believing that only by understanding their viewpoint can we minimize the risk of unintentionally provoking a deadly attack. Wary of NATO expansion and reeling from the Russian economy's descent into chaos, the General Staff may interpret Western military exercises and operations in the Middle East and elsewhere as concealing surprise aggression against Russia. This is a grave situation, indeed, as even after the START I, II, and III agreements, Russia will retain enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world―not to mention significantly expanded chemical and biological warfare capability. War Scare convincingly shows that we ignore these facts at our peril.
- Sales Rank: #1305097 in Books
- Published on: 1999-09-30
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x 1.00" w x 6.00" l, 1.56 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 360 pages
From Library Journal
The arrival of the year 2000 will find humankind's basket of worries distressingly full, with issues like Y2K, global warning, and biological terrorism lurking around the corner. Yet how many Americans worry about the Russian nuclear arsenal and the threat of surprise nuclear war? Not enough, warns Pry, a former CIA intelligence officer. Drawing on his experience with the Agency and a close review of public sources, Pry argues that we have been closer to nuclear war with Russia than top U.S. officials dare to admit. Pry's accounts of five war scares since 1983 and his review of the profound internal crisis in Russia are not for the faint of heart. Even if we disagree with him on just how close to nuclear Armageddon we actually are, his book reminds us that Russia's nuclear force poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security far into the 21st century. It also reminds us that the Clinton administration's nuclear-risk-reduction proposals are much more than another foreign giveaway. It is unfortunate that War Scare, so long in the works, does not provide an updated assessment of relations between Russia and the West in the aftermath of NATO's expansion and the Kosovo conflict, when East-West relations have nose-dived. Otherwise, it is a valuable book.AJohn Raymond Walser, U.S. Dept of State, Washington, DC
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.
Review
"Pry's accounts of five war scares since 1983 and his review of the profound internal crisis in Russia are not for the faint of heart....His book reminds us that Russia's nuclear force poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security far into the 21st century....A valuable book."-Library Journal
?Pry's accounts of five war scares since 1983 and his review of the profound internal crisis in Russia are not for the faint of heart....His book reminds us that Russia's nuclear force poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security far into the 21st century....A valuable book.?-Library Journal
?Pry...presents a hair-raising picture of the Soviet Union and of today's Russian Republic, where, since the 1980s, policies toward the U.S. have been shaped by the fear of a surprise nuclear attack....His conclusion [is] that current U.S. approaches to Russia are based more on hope than reality.?-Publishers Weekly
?A cogent and informed assessment of how close the West came to nuclear war with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and how, contrary to general belief the danger persists....[Pry's] insight into the minds of the Russian General Staff and his concerns about Western misunderstanding of it are important and salutary.?-Kirkus Reviews
"Pry...presents a hair-raising picture of the Soviet Union and of today's Russian Republic, where, since the 1980s, policies toward the U.S. have been shaped by the fear of a surprise nuclear attack....His conclusion [is] that current U.S. approaches to Russia are based more on hope than reality."-Publishers Weekly
"A cogent and informed assessment of how close the West came to nuclear war with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and how, contrary to general belief the danger persists....[Pry's] insight into the minds of the Russian General Staff and his concerns about Western misunderstanding of it are important and salutary."-Kirkus Reviews
About the Author
PETER VINCENT PRY, formerly with the CIA, is currently a professional military advisor to the U.S. House of Representatives on national security issues./e In an award honoring his years of service, the CIA stated: A noted expert in his field, Dr. Pry conducted groundbreaking research that illuminated one of the most important issues of our time, the U.S.-Soviet nuclear competition. On the vanguard of strategic intelligence analysis during the Cold War, he developed much of what the U.S. government knows about Soviet planning for nuclear war, including Soviet views of the character of war, perceptions of U.S. intentions, assessment of the nuclear balance, and operational plans. In the post-Cold War period, his work has been central to the U.S. government's understanding of evolving Russian threat perceptions and military doctrine, and the construction of new paradigms for strategic warning and stability assessments. He lives in Annandale, Virginia.
Most helpful customer reviews
7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Almost but not quite
By Robert M. Pallotti
This book by Dr. Pry serves as an important reminder that nuclear weapons are still a major problem for the forseeable future. The end of the Cold War has lulled many to sleep feeling that nuclear weapons, or the possibility of global thermonuclear war ended in 1991. This book reminds us that others see the world differerntly from ourselves. It raises the issue that if a major power feels insecure that is bad news for everyone. The strength of the book lies in its raising this nuclear debate once again. Some of the interpretations about Russian activites concerning nuclear weapons (third generation) border on the speculative and serve only to create a sense of panic that one associates with the 1980's Committeee for the Present Danger. However, even if one disagrees or is uneasy with some of the argument in Dr. Pry's book one is faced with the undeniable reality that nuclear weapons are still a major problem for international relations and the future of the planet. If this book serves to serve notice to the world to wake up and to rejoin the debate about this important topic then it has accomplished a great thing indeed.
10 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
An absolute must read!
By A Customer
It is a great pity that, unfortunately, it is to the choir that Peter Pry preaches. His current work, WAR SCARE, follows in the footsteps of his earlier works on the Israeli nuclear program and the strategic nuclear balance of the Cold War. All are meticulously researched and written. Those who don't want to hear the message won't read the book. However, those who yearn to know how dangererous the Cold War was, and how dangerous the current international environment is, will read the book.
WAR SCARE details how close the world came to nuclear annhilation in the early 1980s and over and over again well into the Clinton Administration. The details of WAR SCARE, when coupled with the findings of the Cox Committee's report on Communist Chinese nuclear espionage, lead one to seriously question who the Clinton Administration serves, the American people, or themselves, or, more ominously, someone else.
WAR SCARE ought to be in the required reading list of all American History/Government/Civics classes.
6 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
How to respond to the war threat
By David Horton
Yes, the atom has been split: And splitting atoms makes possible the building of great big bombs. Yet many remain in denial of these facts instead of taking measures to minimize risks. Peter Pry's book should convince us that the threat of nuclear assault is higher than ever: Russia now considers a nuclear first strike the preferred means of preempting a nuclear attack upon herself, but also an option to answer threats from conventional weapons: "The role of nuclear weapons today remains even more important than it was during the Cold War," Viktor Surikov, Director, Institute of Defense Studies, September 10, 1996. The projected losses from a nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States were published in the Journal of The American Civil Defense Association in December, 1996; 165,000,000 deaths for the United States, and for Russia, less than she absorbed in World War II. Russia has long considered nuclear war not only thinkable but winnable. Our inaction in the face of the threat makes their calculations more certain. Our lack of preparedness invites the very catastrophe we dread. Once we wake up to the "Russian point of view" as so thoroughly set out in Dr. Pry's book, two conclusions are obvious: First, the federal government has failed completely to discharge its Constitutional responsibility to "provide for the common defense," and second, if we are to protect ourselves and thereby increase our chances of survival and reduce the risk of a nuclear attack, we must begin on our own initiative. Several steps can be taken: 1. The completion in our own towns of the fallout shelter survey that was started in the 1960's will show where hundreds of millions of people can take shelter and survive. 2. Asking our local planning commissions to require shelter spaces in new construction will expand our inventory and reduce heating and cooling requirements for the buildings affected. 3. Urging our state legislatures to provide tax exemptions on shelters built into houses and businesses will encourage citizens to use their own capital to increase their own chances of survival, thereby making the "nuclear option" less attractive to the Russians (and to the Chinese, who already claim to hold 20% of our population hostage). Actively pursuing these objectives will help those in Congress to develop and deploy a strategic missle defense. Pry describes our lack of awareness of the increased hazards of nuclear war since the "end" of the Cold War as "the greatest intelligence failure of the missle age" (p. xvi), and reveals that "Moscow has raised the specter of nuclear war nearly a half dozen times since 1991" (p. xii). We should not wait until we see the blinding flash and feel the ground tremble to heed Pry's warnings that he has developed from unclassified and declassified sources.
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